Best Shares to Buy 2025: Top Stock Picks for Long-Term Investors

Last Updated on 13/02/2025 by Carl-Peter Lehmann

Best Shares to Buy in 2025? This piece is meant to be a fun exercise, sharing ideas for investors who enjoy investing in shares directly. Clearly, assessing the performance of a stock over just one year isn’t nearly long enough to determine its true potential. However, discussing potential winners and uncovering exciting investment opportunities is part of what makes investing fun.

When it comes to building long-term wealth, investing in the world’s most dynamic and innovative companies remains one of the most effective strategies. While the South African market offers opportunities, we believe many of the most exciting stories are found among international stocks, particularly in the United States. That’s why this list focuses on global leaders – companies shaping industries and delivering exceptional value for long-term investors.

This isn’t about short-term trading or speculative plays. Our mindset is firmly rooted in identifying high-quality businesses that can compound wealth over time. With this in mind, let’s first review how our 2024 stock picks performed before diving into our top 10 recommendations for 2025.

Do Read: We’ve also pubslished our latest AI Investment Ideas for 2025 where look at a few more under the radar ideas

Best Shares to Buy 2025

Reviewing Our 2024 Stock Picks

As we step into 2025, it’s a good time to reflect on our 2024 stock picks and their performance, while also looking ahead to fresh opportunities for the coming year. The past year has been another strong one for markets overall, but we’re entering 2025 with heightened risks, including lofty valuations, bullish investor sentiment, rising long-term yields, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. With this backdrop in mind, let’s review how our 2024 picks fared and explore our top picks for 2025.

  • Our 2024 stock picks delivered a pretty decent 41.23% equal-weighted return (in USD), outperforming both the SPY (+25.59%) and the QQQ (+27.74%). Here’s how individual picks performed:

Top Performers:

1. NVIDIA (+178.87%): NVIDIA was the standout performer, driven by its dominance in the AI and GPU markets. Secular trends in AI, cloud computing, and autonomous technology helped propel the company to extraordinary gains.

2. The Trade Desk (+66.50%): The company thrived on the back of its programmatic advertising platform as marketers sought efficiency in ad spending.

3. Intuitive Surgical (+57.70%): This leader in robotic-assisted surgery continued to benefit from the growing adoption of minimally invasive procedures.

Solid Contributors:

4. CrowdStrike (+38.59%): The cybersecurity leader maintained strong subscription growth in a high-demand market.

5. Eli Lilly (+31.21%): A key player in the weight-loss drug space, Eli Lilly delivered robust returns thanks to its groundbreaking products.

6. Visa (+23.03%): Visa’s returns were fueled by global travel recovery and the continued adoption of digital payments.

7. S&P Global (+15.01%): This financial data giant provided stable, long-term growth.

8. Microsoft (+14.50%): Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Microsoft’s investments in AI and cloud computing preserved its appeal.

Underperformers:

9. MercadoLibre (+11.20%): While a leader in Latin American e-commerce, the company faced challenges from currency headwinds and regional instability.

10. Lululemon (-24.33%): The sole negative performer in our portfolio, Lululemon struggled amid changing consumer spending trends and fierce competition.

Best Shares 2024 Reviewed
Our best share ideas for 2024 and how they performed.

Key Takeaways:

1. Winners Compounded: NVIDIA and The Trade Desk demonstrated the power of identifying high-quality companies in transformative sectors.

2. Diversification Paid Off: Despite Lululemon’s drag, the portfolio delivered exceptional overall returns.

3. Patience is Key: Short-term underperformance by MercadoLibre highlights the importance of staying invested in strong long-term stories.

Winners Typically Keep Winning

One of the most fascinating insights from stock market research is the disproportionate role a small fraction of stocks play in overall wealth creation. According to Hendrik Bessembinder’s 2023 study, “Long-Term Shareholder Returns: Evidence from 64,000 Global Stocks, only 2.4% of global stocks accounted for the entire net gain of $75.7 trillion in global market wealth from 1990 to 2020. The remaining 97.6% of stocks collectively delivered returns no better than one-month Treasury bills. In the U.S. market, this dynamic is slightly broader, with just 4% of stocks responsible for total net market gains since 1926. Outside the U.S., the concentration is tighter, with fewer than 2% of stocks contributing to overall gains.

This research underscores a critical lesson for investors: quality, high-performing stocks often continue to deliver outsized returns over time. Identifying and holding these “winners” can make a substantial difference in long-term portfolio performance. When compiling your shortlists and conducting research, it’s essential to start with stocks that have a history of winning. These companies often continue to deliver outsized returns over time. Next, look for names with the potential to become stars of the future, while generally avoiding those with a history of underperformance.

Best Shares to Buy 2025: Some of the Best Stocks for Long Term Investment

While many of our 2024 picks remain excellent long-term holdings, we believe in keeping things interesting by introducing fresh ideas. Starting with stocks that have a history of success is always a good strategy, but adding potential future stars keeps a portfolio dynamic and balanced. Of course, stock performance ultimately depends on how markets perform more broadly, and much will hinge on how 2025 unfolds. Here are our Top 10 Picks for 2025:

1. Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon’s strong 2024 performance signals a turning point after years of subdued growth. AWS growth has re-accelerated, and profit margins in e-commerce are expanding. With levers like advertising, logistics, international markets, and even future opportunities in areas like healthcare and satellite internet through Project Kuiper, Amazon remains a compelling growth story. Its unmatched scale and diverse revenue streams position it as a cornerstone of any long-term investment portfolio.

2. AMD (AMD)

Although AMD underperformed in 2024, the company’s leadership in high-performance computing and its growing presence in AI chips position it for a rebound. The AI chip market is massive and expected to grow exponentially over the next decade. While AMD will likely remain a solid second to NVIDIA, the sheer size of the market provides ample room for growth. Under CEO Lisa Su, AMD has proven it can innovate and compete effectively, making it a strong contender for capturing a larger share of this burgeoning industry.

3. Google (GOOGL)

Arguably the most attractively valued tech titan, Google dominates search while benefiting from strong growth in AI, YouTube, and cloud computing. Its diversified revenue streams, including promising ventures like Waymo in autonomous vehicles, provide significant optionality for future growth. This combination of core business strength and innovative bets makes Google a top pick for 2025.

4. Novo Nordisk (NVO)

As a leader in the weight-loss drug market, Novo Nordisk is well-positioned to capture demand in this expanding sector. While Eli Lilly remains our top pick in this space due to its greater pipeline, Novo Nordisk’s valuation has become more compelling after a lackluster 2024. We’re also watching Viking Therapeutics as a more speculative name in this space, given its innovative approach and early-stage potential.

5. Lockheed Martin (LMT)

In an era of heightened geopolitical tensions, you might assume defense stocks would be on a tear. Surprisingly, that hasn’t been the case. Defense stocks like Lockheed Martin tend to be fairly slow growers, moving according to their own cycles rather than broader market trends. One of their main attractions is often their reliable dividends. Lockheed Martin’s shares are currently down over 20% from recent highs and have seen limited performance over the last five years. However, as a leader in aerospace and defense, it still stands to benefit from increasing government budgets globally and its exposure to advanced weaponry and space technologies.

6. Zscaler (ZS)

Zscaler’s rebound potential is strong after a challenging 2024. One has to include cybersecurity in a portfolio, given its critical importance in today’s digital world. While CrowdStrike remains our top pick in the sector, Zscaler is a name we like despite its struggles to achieve consistent profitability. Operating in an industry with massive growth potential, Zscaler is well-positioned to capitalize on increasing demand for robust security solutions.

7. SoFi Technologies (SOFI)

A disruptor in financial services, SoFi continues to grow its member base and improve profitability. This is a more speculative fintech play but an interesting disruptor to traditional banking, lending, and financial services more generally. Its success is also tied to a favorable interest rate environment, which will be a key factor to watch. Its focus on younger generations and seamless digital experiences positions it as a compelling fintech player for 2025.
A disruptor in financial services, SoFi continues to grow its member base and improve profitability. Its focus on younger generations and seamless digital experiences positions it as a compelling fintech player for 2025.

8. Nike (NKE)

Nike’s potential turnaround, driven by direct-to-consumer initiatives and digital innovation, could deliver upside surprises. This is our main turnaround play, based purely on the strength of Nike’s brand. The stock has been a disaster for the last three years, but if they can execute their new strategy (under a new CEO), this could reward patient investors in the long term.

9. LVMH (LVMH)

As the global leader in luxury goods, LVMH benefits from strong demand, particularly in Asia. This is another high-quality name going through a rough patch, much of which is tied to the Chinese consumer. However, we believe this will turn around at some point, and at least the valuation now is more compelling than it was before. Its ability to innovate while maintaining brand heritage ensures its continued dominance in the high-margin luxury sector.

10. Caterpillar (CAT)

Caterpillar (CAT) is an industrial giant that is typically quite cyclical and is best bought after major market sell-offs. However, it stands to benefit from the onshoring effect and the rebuilding of the industrial base in the U.S. If the economy grows at a strong clip again in 2025, Caterpillar should be well-positioned to capitalize on increased demand for construction and industrial equipment.

Top Stocks 2025
Returns above as at 27/01/2025. Excludes dividends

What Drives Share Prices? The Power of Earnings Surprises

One of the biggest drivers of share price performance is surprises – particularly earnings surprises. Markets are forward-looking, and much of a company’s expected performance is already baked into its stock price. However, when a company consistently beats expectations on earnings, revenue, or future guidance, investors are forced to re-evaluate and reprice the stock higher.

This is one of the primary reasons we have seen spectacular growth in tech and digital companies over the last 10-15 years, despite their already (often) immense size and market capitalizations. Companies like Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Amazon have managed to consistently exceed analyst expectations, proving their ability to grow revenue, margins, and profits at a faster rate than the market anticipated. This repeated cycle of outperformance drives sustained upward momentum in share prices.

As Warren Buffett once said:

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

This quote underscores how long-term investors who understand the power of earnings surprises and invest in companies that continue to deliver them can generate substantial wealth over time. While valuation matters, it’s the ability to outperform expectations repeatedly that separates truly exceptional businesses from the rest of the market

Further Reading: If you enjoy DIY Investing and Specifically Stock Picking You Might Enjoy This Piece

Key Takeaways on our Best Shares to Buy for 2025

1. Stick with Quality: Most of our 2024 picks still remain leaders, as high-quality companies with durable growth tend to compound over time.
2. Fresh Ideas: The 2025 list introduces new names to diversify the portfolio, while still leaning into strong secular trends like AI, cybersecurity, luxury goods, and healthcare innovation.
3. Balance Growth and Value: This year’s picks include a mix of established leaders and rebound opportunities, offering a well-rounded approach to market risks and opportunities.

Further Reading: Understanding Investment Risk in Growing and Managing an Investment Portfolio

Final Thoughts

We entered 2024 with a cautious outlook, yet the market defied expectations and delivered another strong 20%+ year for the S&P 500. Much of this rally was fueled by low expectations coming into the year, allowing for upside surprises that propelled stock prices higher. Heading into 2025, however, expectations are far higher, meaning that delivering earnings surprises – one of the key drivers of share price performance – may become more challenging.

That being said, we still like all of our 2024 picks and believe they remain strong long-term investments. However, we also wanted to introduce some fresh ideas for 2025 – companies that we think have exciting growth potential and could be strong performers in the years ahead. We’ve also just published our AI investing ideas piece for 2025 so take a look at that.

When it comes to buying shares, we prefer to do so opportunistically – taking advantage of market pullbacks or sell-offs to accumulate quality businesses at better prices. That’s why it’s crucial to have a watchlist ready and a plan in place, so when the right opportunity presents itself, you’re prepared to pull the trigger with confidence.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing in stocks carries risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consider speaking with a financial professional before making investment decisions.

Picture of Carl-Peter Lehmann

Carl-Peter Lehmann

I’m a Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) with over 20 years of experience in wealth management and financial planning, specializing in offshore investments. While I help clients navigate their financial futures professionally, I’m also a stock market nerd who loves analyzing companies, tracking big macro trends, and spotting investment opportunities. Managing my own share portfolio is both a passion and a challenge - one that keeps me constantly learning and engaged with markets. Whether it’s earnings reports, central bank decisions, or major economic shifts, I enjoy connecting the dots and figuring out where the world is heading next.

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